Can You Buy Luck? – Loot Boxes and the Gamble Built Into Your Game

The tricks used by game developers and why they are a problem.

This post is part of our ongoing series on dark patterns in video games. Just joining us? “When Games Play Dirty” is the place to start, and “The Great Trade-Off – In-Game Currencies and Microtransactions” is the direct predecessor to this article.

Let’s Start Simple: What Even Is a Loot Box?

Imagine walking into a store and buying a mystery bag. You know it contains something from a specific category — but you don’t find out what until you open it. Sometimes there’s something great inside. A lot of the time, though? Not so much.

That’s exactly what a loot box is in a video game. A virtual crate or chest you buy — but whose contents are determined by chance. Maybe you get a rare weapon, a cool character, or an exclusive outfit. Or maybe you get something you already own three times over and have zero use for.

Sounds harmless enough. Except it often isn’t — and there are solid reasons for that.

Why Loot Boxes Are More Than Just a Mystery Bag

The key difference from a mystery bag at the corner store: that costs you a couple bucks once, and then it’s actually yours. A loot box, depending on the game, can only be purchased with an in-game currency — which you have to buy with real money. We broke down how these layered systems work in Part 2 of our microtransactions series.

On top of that: the most coveted items — the truly rare ones — often have odds of less than one percent. You could spend hundreds of dollars without ever landing the item you want. That’s structurally identical to a slot machine: you pay, you spin, you hope — and the outcome is pure chance.

And that’s exactly where the real problem starts.

How a Loot Box Hacks Your Brain

When something good happens — a rare item drops from the loot box! — your brain releases dopamine. That’s the same hormone that fires during real gambling, when you hit it on a slot machine. Here’s the kicker: it doesn’t just fire when you win. It fires while you’re waiting and hoping. Opening a loot box is deliberately packed with sound effects, flashing lights, and animation — the same way a slot machine jingles and flickers.

Psychologists call this a variable reward system: irregular, unpredictable rewards keep us hooked more effectively than predictable ones. This isn’t theory anymore — it’s well-established neuropsychological fact.

A 2024 study in Frontiers in Psychology (Sanmartín et al.) directly compared the cognitive patterns of problem gamblers and loot box buyers. The finding: both groups showed nearly identical cognitive distortions — the irrational thought patterns that keep people going even when they keep losing. These include:

  • Illusion of control: “This time I’ll get it if I open the box fast.”
  • Interpretation bias: Past losses get read as a signal that a win is right around the corner.
  • Gambling-related expectations: The belief that if you just keep going, you’ll eventually be rewarded.

The only statistically significant difference: only problem gamblers showed a stronger felt inability to stop — suggesting that loot boxes might be a stepping stone toward problem gambling behavior, not the other way around.

Loot Boxes as a Gateway to Gambling — What the Research Shows

Researchers actually have a name for this transition — from loot boxes to real gambling. They call it “migration.” And there are now several longitudinal studies that document exactly that path.

A 2025 study (Brooks & Clark, replicated by Holloway et al., BMC Psychology, 2025) followed young adults in Canada over six months. The result was clear: loot box spending at the start of the observation period significantly predicted whether someone would start gambling with real money six months later — and how much they spent doing it. Direct purchases without a random element showed no such effect. So it’s not the spending itself that drives the risk — it’s the randomness mechanic.

That finding is backed up by a Spanish study with 542 teenagers and young adults (González-Cabrera et al., JMIR Serious Games, 2024): problematic loot box use acted as a full mediator between gaming addiction and online gambling disorder. Put plainly: heavy loot box users had a significantly elevated risk of developing problem gambling later — and that held equally true for minors and young adults alike.

A large-scale study from Keele University (Close et al., Royal Society Open Science, 2023), with over 2,700 participants, confirmed the link between risky loot box behavior and reduced subjective well-being, elevated psychological distress — and problem gambling.

And finally, a 2026 study (Psychology of Addictive Behaviors, Newall et al.) that compared loot boxes directly with physical trading card packs: people who spent more on loot boxes were significantly more likely to show problem gambling behavior — and that link was more than twice as strong as it was for buyers of physical trading cards. The researchers explicitly conclude that many existing gambling laws paradoxically regulate the less harmful random-chance products, while the more harmful ones — loot boxes — remain in a legal gray zone.

The Business Model Behind the Gambling Mechanic

Loot boxes aren’t a side effect of game design. They’re the centerpiece of a very lucrative business model.

Electronic Arts (EA) made roughly $1.6 billion in 2021 from loot boxes in FIFA alone — about a third of its total annual revenue. Industry analysts projected that loot boxes would generate over $20 billion per year globally by 2025 (Juniper Research, 2021).

A German media watchdog analysis (jugendschutz.net, published June 2024 in merz | medien + erziehung) examined loot boxes across roughly 20 games — including League of Legends, Clash Royale, and several InnoGames titles — and found: about one in three loot box systems examined should be classified as risky. They function as a “vehicle within a much broader system of manipulation mechanics.” The factors that increased risk most: the rarity of items, the emotional staging of the opening ritual, and the way loot boxes are decoupled from the actual gameplay.

Here’s something most people don’t realize: 56% of all mobile games that include loot boxes are rated for kids ages seven and up (TechRadar, cited in gl-recht.at 2024). The target audience is intentionally young.

For Parents: What This Looks Like in Real Life

According to the Newzoo Global Gamer Study 2023, 94% of Generation Alpha (everyone born from 2010 onward) consider themselves enthusiastic gamers. Nearly 40% of these kids already play games with pay-to-play models. Over 20% spend more than $25 a month on digital content. The top reasons for buying: unlocking special content (38%) and personalizing characters (35%).

What this tells us: kids aren’t buying loot boxes in spite of the randomness mechanic — they’re buying them because of what’s behind it. Belonging. Individuality. Keeping up. Those aren’t irrational motivations. They’re just systematically exploited.

Some conversation starters for talking to your kids:

  • “Do you know what’s inside a loot box before you buy it?” (No — that’s the whole point.)
  • “How many did you open before you got what you actually wanted?”
  • “How would you feel if you were doing this at a real slot machine?”

It’s not about banning gaming. It’s about building awareness — because a kid who understands that the system is designed to keep them coming back will make better decisions.

This is where things get complicated — and especially relevant for us as a European-based organization.

In Austria

Austria’s legal situation has had quite a journey. In 2023, the District Court of Hermagor ruled that FIFA loot boxes constitute illegal gambling and ordered EA and Sony to issue refunds. In 2024, the Vienna Regional Court upheld that ruling. But the story didn’t end there: EA and Sony appealed, and the case landed at Austria’s Supreme Court (OGH).

The OGH ruling (6 Ob 228/24h, 2025/2026) ultimately came out differently: the Supreme Court ruled that FIFA loot boxes do not constitute gambling under § 1 para. 1 of the Austrian Gambling Act (GSpG). The reasoning: a loot box can’t be evaluated in isolation from the rest of the game. Since success in the soccer simulation depends substantially on skill, tactics, and strategy, it doesn’t qualify as a game where the outcome “depends exclusively or predominantly on chance.”

That’s a significant ruling — but it’s not a free pass for the industry. The OGH decision applies only to this specific game type and this national legal definition. For other genres where skill plays a smaller role, the assessment could land very differently. A legal analysis from JKU Linz (2025) concludes that loot boxes — depending on how they’re structured — can very well fall under the GSpG.

In the EU and Germany

Belgium became the first EU country to ban paid loot boxes back in 2018. The Netherlands classified FIFA packs as gambling in 2020 — with fines to follow. Germany doesn’t currently classify loot boxes as gambling (because there’s no direct monetary payout), but its 2022 youth protection reform (§ 10b JuSchG) added gambling-like mechanics as a risk factor in age ratings. Since then, games like EA Sports FC have received higher age ratings (USK 12 instead of USK 0).

Germany’s Bundesrat passed a resolution at its 1,059th session on November 21, 2025, calling on the federal government to examine whether loot boxes should be more strictly regulated under youth protection law — including mandatory age verification for those under 18 and transparency requirements for odds disclosure.

At the EU level, the European Commission published Recommendation 2025/4764 on July 14, 2025, calling for effective protection of minors from paid loot boxes and other gambling-like mechanics.

China and South Korea have required odds disclosure for years. In much of the Western world, that kind of transparency is still far from standard.

What Would Actually Be Fair?

To be clear: not every random system in a game is automatically a problem. Rolling dice in a board game is also chance. The difference lies in the combination of real money, psychological manipulation, and zero transparency.

What fair loot boxes would actually look like:

  • Disclosed odds for every possible item
  • Pity systems with guaranteed caps (after X purchases, you’re guaranteed to get the item you want)
  • No link to gameplay advantage (cosmetic items only)
  • No buying loot boxes exclusively through obfuscated in-game currency
  • No direct marketing of these mechanics to minors

Some games already do this — so it’s clearly possible. It’s a matter of will, not technical feasibility.

Our Take

Loot boxes may be the most precise example of what we mean by dark patterns in this series: mechanics that don’t just happen to feel like gambling — that structurally and psychologically are gambling — without technically meeting the legal definition of it.

The research is unambiguous: there’s a robust link between loot box use and problem gambling behavior. Kids and teens are particularly at risk because their impulse control is still developing. And the gaming industry is making billions off of this.

Policy is lagging behind. The laws are a patchwork. But public pressure is growing — and awareness is a big part of what drives that. The fact that you’re reading this article? That’s already a step.

Here’s your instant jackpot tip: if loot boxes and gambling mechanics can’t be earned through gameplay but have to be bought outright, the rule is simple — at minimum, proceed with caution. Or better yet, just don’t. Game on. 🎮

Sources

Academic Studies:

  1. Sanmartín, F. J., Velasco, J., Gálvez-Lara, M., Cuadrado, F. & Moriana, J. A. (2024). Do problematic gamblers and loot boxers share similar fallacies of thought? A comparative analysis of cognitive biases. Frontiers in Psychology, 15, 1430926. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2024.1430926
  2. González-Cabrera, J., Caba-Machado, V., Díaz-López, A., Jiménez-Murcia, S., Mestre-Bach, G. & Machimbarrena, J. M. (2024). The Mediating Role of Problematic Use of Loot Boxes Between Internet Gaming Disorder and Online Gambling Disorder: Cross-Sectional Analytical Study. JMIR Serious Games, 12, e57304. https://doi.org/10.2196/57304
  3. Holloway, J. et al. (2025). A longitudinal replication study testing migration from video game loot boxes to gambling in British Columbia, Canada. BMC Psychology. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40359-025-02766-1
  4. Close, J., Spicer, S. G., Nicklin, L. L., Uther, M., Whalley, B., Fullwood, C., Stiff, C., Parke, J., Lloyd, J. & Lloyd, H. (2023). Exploring the relationships between psychological variables and loot box engagement, part 1: pre-registered hypotheses. Royal Society Open Science, 10(12), 231045. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsos.231045
  5. Newall, P., Nielsen, R. K. L., Petrovskaya, E., Zendle, D. & Xiao, L. Y. (2026). Physical Card Pack and Especially Video Game Loot Box Spending Are Both Positively Correlated With Problem Gambling but Not Linked to Negative Mental Health. Psychology of Addictive Behaviors, 40(1), 66–85. https://doi.org/10.1037/adb0001082
  6. Lloyd, J. et al. (2025). Validation of the yRAFFLE: an implementation of the RAFFLE inventory for loot box engagement in a youth cohort. BMC Digital Health. https://doi.org/10.1186/s44247-025-00160-w
  7. Wagner, V. (2024). Risiken von Lootboxen in Games. merz | medien + erziehung, 68(5), S. 6. (Summary of the jugendschutz.net analysis.) https://doi.org/10.21240/merz/2024.5.5

Legal Sources & Authorities:

  1. Austrian Supreme Court (OGH). Are “loot boxes” in video games gambling? (6 Ob 228/24h). https://www.ogh.gv.at/entscheidungen/entscheidungen-ogh/handelt-es-sich-bei-lootboxen-in-videospielen-um-gluecksspiel/
  2. Bundesrat of the Federal Republic of Germany (2025). Resolution on reducing addiction risk through improved regulation of loot boxes and other gambling-like mechanics in video games. Drucksache 517/25 (Beschluss), 1059th session, November 21, 2025. https://www.bundesrat.de/drs.html?id=517-25(B)
  3. European Commission (2025). Recommendation 2025/4764 on the protection of minors from paid loot boxes, July 14, 2025.
  4. Austrian Parliament. Motion regarding the prohibition of gambling with “loot boxes” (XXVII. GP, A 3820). https://www.parlament.gv.at/dokument/XXVII/A/3820/fnameorig_1601780.html
  5. University Library Linz / JKU (2025). Legal analysis: Loot boxes under Austrian gambling law and an EU comparison. (epub.jku.at) https://epub.jku.at/obvulihs/download/pdf/12295465

Market Data & Background:

  1. Newzoo (2023). Global Gamer Study 2023 – Generation Alpha and gaming purchase behavior. Summary via gl-recht.at: https://gl-recht.at/lootboxen-eine-spezielle-bedrohung-fuer-kinder/
  2. Juniper Research (2021). Video game loot boxes to generate over $20 billion in revenue by 2025. Cited in Chew & Neo, Trends in Psychology, 2024.
  3. rosenheim24.de (2025). Lootboxen in FIFA & Co.: Wenn Gaming zum Glücksspiel wird. (Summary of EA/FIFA revenue figures and international regulatory overview.) https://www.rosenheim24.de/service/verbraucher/lootboxen-in-fifa-co-wenn-gaming-zum-gluecksspiel-wird-93918150.html
  4. glueckswirtschaft.de (2026). Lootboxen gleich Glücksspiel? Das OGH-Urteil in Österreich im Überblick. https://glueckswirtschaft.de/regulierung/lootboxen-gluecksspiel-das-ogh-urteil-in-oesterreich-im-ueberblick
Posted by Marc